Vietnam is poised to achieve the highest economic growth in the region in 2024 and is forecasted to maintain its momentum in the coming years, driven by key reforms such as streamlining government operations and improving institutional frameworks.

At the “Investment 2025: Decoding Variables, Identifying Opportunities” conference organized by Investment Review on December 12, experts discussed Vietnam’s significant growth drivers for 2025. These include export expansion, robust FDI inflows, advancements in digital transformation and artificial intelligence (AI), and strong private investment led by state capital initiatives.

Experts believe the target of 7–7.5% GDP growth for 2025 is achievable. In the long term, even double-digit growth is possible if bottlenecks are effectively addressed.

Government reforms as a catalyst for growth

Dr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, highlighted that the government’s efforts to streamline its organizational structure provide a solid foundation for economic growth in 2025.

He noted that Vietnam’s development framework will benefit from newly implemented laws such as the Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Procurement Law, which take effect in 2023 and 2024 and are expected to offer clearer regulatory guidance.

However, Dr. Khoi emphasized the need to improve the efficiency of domestic enterprises, which currently lags due to both internal issues (e.g., business strategies, human resources, outdated equipment) and external factors (e.g., investment climate, policies, and global political developments). Enhancing business performance could significantly boost Vietnam’s economic growth.

“Vietnam is aiming for double-digit GDP growth, and this goal is not far-fetched. The core factor lies in improving the operational efficiency of enterprises,” Dr. Khoi stated.

Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients at Citi Vietnam, argued that mergers, streamlining the apparatus, and institutional reforms will foster a more conducive environment for growth. A strong financial system will enable the economy to better withstand external shocks.

Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director at VPBank Securities, shared an optimistic view for 2025. According to him, public investment, digital transformation, and streamlining administrative operations will play key roles. Once policies are implemented, the stock market is expected to rise within 3–6 months and sustain growth for up to a year.

Streamlining for economic efficiency

One major barrier to economic growth has been the inefficiency of domestic enterprises, exacerbated by a cumbersome administrative apparatus and insufficient public investment. High recurrent expenditure remains a significant challenge.

Resolution 18-NQ/TW of the Party Central Committee aims to reorganize the political system to make it leaner, more effective, and efficient, focusing on restructuring personnel and reducing recurrent expenditures. The savings could then be redirected toward development investment, increasing economic efficiency.

Streamlining government operations could also lead to a shift of surplus labor from the public to the private sector. With proper support policies, this workforce could drive a wave of entrepreneurial activity, addressing inefficiencies while unleashing human capital for productive use.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, Director of the Institute for Global Financial and Real Estate Market Research, described this approach as an ideal economic stimulus if accompanied by adequate support policies. For example, giving employees severance packages to start their own businesses could provide a significant boost to the economy.

Dr. Hieu also noted that similar strategies have been employed globally, such as Thailand’s recent decision to distribute cash directly to tens of millions of citizens as an economic stimulus measure.

Streamlining Vietnam’s government apparatus could result in a leaner, more efficient system, reducing fiscal pressure and enabling economic breakthroughs. For displaced workers, reasonable support policies would help them stabilize their lives and potentially thrive in entrepreneurial ventures, paving the way for a new generation of business leaders.

Manh Ha