To achieve a GDP growth rate of over 8%, the government must assess resource availability, optimize mobilization strategies, and implement risk management measures.

This requires bold, breakthrough solutions to capitalize on opportunities, mitigate risks, and drive sustainable economic expansion.

On the morning of February 12, following the opening of the ninth extraordinary session of the National Assembly, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, on behalf of the government, presented the 2025 economic and social development plan, targeting GDP growth of at least 8%.

Minister Dung stated that the government is proposing an upward adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth target from the previously approved range of 6.5-7% to a minimum of 8%.

The revised plan also aims for a GDP size exceeding $500 billion, a per capita GDP of over $5,000, and an average consumer price index (CPI) increase of 4.5-5%.

Policy shifts and economic drivers

To achieve these ambitious targets, Minister Dung emphasized the need for a paradigm shift in policymaking. This includes moving away from a restrictive "if it cannot be managed, it should be banned" mindset to a governance model that balances strict oversight with development facilitation.

A results-based regulatory approach will replace excessive pre-approval requirements, shifting toward post-implementation monitoring with enhanced inspection and supervision.

The government also highlights the necessity of unlocking public investment, boosting private sector engagement, and accelerating industrial processing and manufacturing.

Additional priorities include stimulating consumer spending, attracting tourists, expanding exports, and fostering new economic growth drivers and advanced production capacities.

Challenges and risks remain

In reviewing the proposal, Economic Committee Chairman Vu Hong Thanh acknowledged the need to adjust the 2025 growth target to align with the long-term socio-economic development goals of the 2021-2025 period.

However, the committee warned that both domestic and global economic conditions present ongoing challenges. As of January 2025, business activity has yet to show significant improvement, with 58,300 companies withdrawing from the market.

The industrial production index (IIP) recorded only a modest 0.6% increase year-on-year, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has remained below the 50-point threshold for two consecutive months.

Given these concerns, the committee urged the government to conduct a comprehensive assessment of global economic trends, particularly those affecting Vietnam’s major trade partners. Special attention must be given to financial security, national debt sustainability, and overall feasibility of the proposed targets.

Additionally, the government must carefully evaluate resource availability, risk control mechanisms, and strategies for achieving the GDP target while maintaining long-term economic stability.

The committee also endorsed adjusting the average CPI target to 4.5-5% to allow greater flexibility in fiscal and monetary policy management. However, it cautioned that inflation remains a critical indicator, directly impacting macroeconomic stability, consumer purchasing power, and business costs.

Ensuring financial stability and strategic investment

Chairman Thanh emphasized that inflation control measures must be aligned with growth objectives, macroeconomic stability, and public welfare. This includes setting clear policies for regulating state-managed prices, particularly in sectors such as education and healthcare, which directly affect household expenditures.

The Economic Committee also supports adjustments to fiscal deficit and public debt targets. If necessary, the fiscal deficit may be raised to approximately 4-4.5% of GDP, while public and external debt levels could approach or slightly exceed warning thresholds of 5% of GDP to secure additional investment funds.

However, the government must clarify how increased fiscal deficits and public debt will be utilized. Efficient resource allocation and strict compliance with budgetary regulations are essential to ensure long-term financial stability.

Proactive policy responses and investment efficiency

To achieve the 8% GDP growth target, the committee recommends that the government closely monitor global economic and political developments and respond promptly to evolving challenges. This is especially crucial given the rising geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and protectionist policies among major economies.

Public investment in 2025 will be a key driver of growth, with nearly 890 trillion VND ($35 billion) allocated for development projects. The government must implement concrete measures to ensure effective budget execution, enhance investment management, and fully disburse allocated public funds.

Efforts should focus on leveraging public investment to stimulate private sector participation, aligning with the strategic goal of using public funding to catalyze broader economic investment.

Additionally, the committee urged the government to introduce targeted monetary and fiscal policies to boost domestic consumption, tourism, and overall demand.

Streamlining investment procedures and removing regulatory bottlenecks will be essential to improving business conditions. The government should conduct a comprehensive review of national planning frameworks to resolve conflicts and minimize land access costs for businesses.

Vietnam must also capitalize on its 17 existing free trade agreements (FTAs) while pursuing new trade deals with emerging markets. Expanding into niche markets, ensuring transparency in export value chains, and proactively addressing trade defense measures will help mitigate potential tariff risks.

Enhancing governance and fostering innovation

The committee emphasized the importance of maintaining administrative efficiency and avoiding disruptions that could negatively impact businesses and citizens. Strengthening workforce productivity and social security policies should remain high on the agenda.

Furthermore, the government must establish practical policies to recognize and support officials who demonstrate innovation, proactivity, and accountability in advancing economic reforms. Encouraging bold decision-making and protecting officials who act in the public interest will be vital to fostering a more dynamic and effective governance environment.

Thu Hang