Vietnam is experiencing a sharp rise in pork prices due to a temporary supply shortage, with prices reaching their highest levels in three years.

The head of the Department of Livestock Production attributes this to seasonal demand spikes before and after the Lunar New Year and increased household stockpiling.

According to a report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam’s total pig population in 2024 reached 31.08 million, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous year. Pork production totaled 5.16 million tons, up 6.6%.

At the beginning of 2024, live pig prices remained stable between 52,000-60,000 VND ($2.10-$2.40) per kilogram. By mid-year, prices surged in line with global trends, occasionally exceeding 70,000 VND ($2.80) per kilogram.

Prices later dropped to 64,000-66,000 VND ($2.50-$2.65) per kilogram in July and August before rising again by 2,000-3,000 VND ($0.08-$0.12) per kilogram in September.

In January 2025, live pig prices ranged from 65,000-67,000 VND ($2.60-$2.70) per kilogram, with large farms charging an additional 1,000-2,000 VND ($0.04-$0.08) per kilogram.

At the same time, lower feed costs helped farmers earn profits, encouraging them to expand production. As a result, pork production in 2025 is expected to increase by 5% to over 5.4 million tons.

Despite this, following the Lunar New Year holiday, live pig prices soared to 70,000-75,000 VND ($2.80-$3.00) per kilogram, the highest level in three years.

Why is there a pork shortage?

Several factors have contributed to the temporary supply shortage. Disease outbreaks have led to higher mortality rates among pigs, while strict environmental regulations forced many farms to suspend operations.

The peak demand period around Tet (Lunar New Year) saw households stocking up on meat, leading to localized shortages.

At Ha Nam’s wholesale livestock market, the daily supply of live pigs dropped to 400-500 pigs, only one-fifth of normal levels.

Similarly, at Ho Chi Minh City's major wholesale markets (Tan Xuan in Hoc Mon and Binh Dien in District 8), daily pig arrivals fell by 50%, from 7,000 to 3,000-3,500 pigs.

Speaking to VietNamNet on February 13, Duong Tat Thang, Director of the Department of Livestock Production, reassured that the shortage is only temporary. He explained that demand surged by 15-20% during Tet, with households stockpiling pork.

Additionally, higher live pig prices prompted farmers to sell pigs earlier than usual, before they reached the optimal weight of 100 kg per pig, reducing supply in the post-holiday period.

"This price fluctuation is a normal market cycle," Thang stated, emphasizing that Vietnam’s total pig herd of over 30 million remains sufficient for domestic demand. He added that the current price hike will not significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Livestock industry experts predict that pork prices will remain elevated but not for long. As farmers increase pig production in response to higher profits, supply will eventually rise, bringing prices back down.

"When live pig prices reach profitable levels, farmers will rush to expand their herds. Once supply increases, prices will cool off," Thang noted.

Tam An