This was part of a response to Bac Lieu province voters’ petitions sent to the Ministry of Health (MOH) after the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly. The voters requested stronger policies to support elderly healthcare, monitor policy implementation at the grassroots, and increase funding for elderly associations.

Lan stated that, per National Population Data, Vietnam currently has about 16.1 million elderly people, accounting for over 16 percent of the population.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) predicted that by 2038 Vietnam will enter an aged population phase. In 2009, one in 11 people was 60 or older; by 2029, this ratio will be 6:1, and by 2038, 5:1. This means that by 2038, one in five Vietnamese will be over 60.

The aging index (the number of elderly per 100 children under 15) is rising. In 2021, it was 53.1 percent; by 2024, it’s 60.2 percent (over 60 elderly per 100 children under 15). Projections suggest this index will exceed 100 by 2032, marking the point when the elderly outnumber children.

Currently, the Mekong Delta and Red River Delta have the highest aging indices, at 76.8 percent and 70.6 percent, respectively.

At the local level, Ben Tre is the only province where the elderly already outnumber children, with an aging index of 100.1 percent. Thai Binh, Vinh Long, and Nam Dinh follow with high indices of 98.6 percent, 95.1 percent, and 90.8 percent, respectively.

Hanoi and HCM City have similar aging indices (65.7 percent and 65.2 percent). However, Hanoi has a higher share of people over 65 (10.5 percent) compared to HCM Cit’s 7.5 percent.

Population forecasts show that in 2019, no province had more elderly than children, but by 2029, 14 provinces will, and by 2039, 41 provinces will.

Vietnamese life expectancy is rising fast, reaching 74.7 years in 2024, higher than many countries with similar per capita income. Yet, healthy life expectancy remains modest at 65 years.

On average, Vietnamese people face 10 years of health issues and illness.

Deputy Health Minister Tran Van Thuan noted that Vietnam’s elderly face a dual disease burden: accumulated chronic non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular issues, diabetes, cancer, osteoporosis, and dementia, plus a high risk of functional decline, treatment complications, drug dependency, and reduced quality of life.

Each Vietnamese elderly person averages 3-4 chronic conditions.

Making up 16 percent of the population, the elderly account for over 50 percent of annual treatment costs. Treating the elderly costs nearly 10 times more than treating the young.

The state budget allocates about VND28,000 billion annually for monthly social assistance and health insurance cards for social protection beneficiaries, including the elderly.

Vo Thu