During the trading session on February 10, shares of Hoa Phat Group (HPG) and several other steel companies experienced a sharp decline. HPG dropped nearly 4.7%, causing the net worth of Hoa Phat Group chairman Tran Dinh Long to fall by over $80 million, bringing his total assets down to approximately $1.68 billion.

The total wealth of Tran Dinh Long’s family evaporated by nearly $112 million after former U.S. president Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, including those from Vietnam. Early on February 11 (Vietnam time), Trump officially signed this order.

Other steel stocks also saw significant declines on February 10, with Hoa Sen Group (HSG) dropping 4.52% and Nam Kim Steel down 3.6%.

The announcement of the new tariffs immediately affected investor sentiment. However, experts believe the long-term impact may not be as severe as initially feared.

According to SSI Securities, Trump signed a declaration increasing steel and aluminum import tariffs to a fixed 25%, while eliminating all exemptions for certain countries. This is an extension of Section 232 tariffs imposed in 2018, which initially allowed exemptions for countries such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and the UK.

Under the new order, Washington maintains Section 232 tariffs while removing all exemptions, with the new law set to take effect on March 4.

For Vietnam, steel imports to the U.S. have been subject to a 25% tariff since 2018 under Section 232, meaning the latest tariff hike does not directly affect Vietnamese steel exports.

SSI Securities suggests that the policy will have minimal impact on Vietnam’s steel industry in terms of exports to the U.S. In fact, this move may even be somewhat beneficial, as it levels the playing field by applying the same tariff rate to all countries, reducing competitive disadvantages for Vietnam.

Vietnam’s steel exports to affected countries like Mexico and Canada remain relatively small. As of December 2024, these nations were not among Vietnam’s top 10 steel export markets, according to data from the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA).

That said, the full impact of the policy remains uncertain due to the complexity of tariff structures. There are additional trade barriers, such as countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping (AD) taxes, with ongoing investigations into potential anti-dumping violations.

Recently, the U.S. released preliminary findings on anti-corrosion steel imports from Vietnam. Hoa Sen Group (HSG) and Ton Dong A (GDA) were assigned minimal CVD rates of approximately 0.13% and 0%, respectively. Preliminary AD tax determinations are expected in the coming months.

On February 11, HPG shares rebounded by nearly 2.8%, helping Tran Dinh Long’s family regain more than half of their previous losses.

However, HSG and GDA shares continued to decline, slipping by 0.9% and 1.24%, respectively.

For the steel sector, SSI Securities predicts a positive outlook for 2025, driven by recovering domestic demand, increased public investment, and a rebound in the real estate market. The firm also anticipates the introduction of anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel from China and India.

Hoa Phat Group is expected to see revenue growth as its Dung Quat 2 complex becomes operational.

In 2024, Hoa Phat recorded a 17% revenue increase, reaching over $5.6 billion, while net profit surged 77% to more than $480 million.

On February 11, the stock market saw the VN-Index rise by 5.2 points to 1,268.45 points. The HNX-Index climbed 0.9 points to 228.87 points, and the UPCoM-Index edged up 0.12 points to 96.75 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges reached approximately $620 million.

Manh Ha