According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported 200,000 metric tons of coffee in March, generating the highest-ever monthly revenue from this key commodity.

Over the first three months of 2025, Vietnam exported 509,500 tons of coffee, earning an estimated USD 2.88 billion. While export volume dropped 12.9% year-on-year, the value surged by 49.5%, driven by a sharp increase in prices.

The Ministry reported that the average export price of Vietnamese coffee in Q1 2025 was USD 5,656 per ton, up 71.7% compared to the same period last year.

Germany, Italy, and Japan remain the top three buyers of Vietnamese coffee, accounting for 16.2%, 9.9%, and 7.4% of total exports respectively.

Year-on-year, export values to Germany rose by 79.3%, to Italy by 31.9%, and to Japan by 56.1% in the first two months of 2025. Among Vietnam’s top 15 coffee export markets, Poland recorded the strongest growth - tripling in value - while Indonesia was the only market with a decline, down 37.5%.

As of now, the domestic price for raw coffee beans in Vietnam remains around VND 132,300/kg (approx. USD 5.29/kg), slightly below the peak of nearly VND 136,000/kg (USD 5.43/kg) recorded in March.

On the London futures exchange, Robusta coffee - Vietnam’s primary export variety - was traded at USD 5,269/ton for May 2025 contracts, and USD 5,295/ton for July 2025 delivery.

The Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (VICOFA) forecasted that Vietnam’s 2024–2025 coffee output will decline by 5% year-on-year, falling to approximately 27 million 60kg bags, due to climate change impacts and reduced cultivation area.

However, global coffee prices may soon face downward pressure as freshly harvested supply enters the market and Brazil prepares for its next harvest.

Additionally, global demand is showing signs of cooling due to high prices. Experts warn that sustained high coffee prices may lead to reduced consumption and put further pressure on prices in the near term.

Tam An